The Dolphins look to snap a three-game losing streak on Sunday Night Football against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The pregame narrative: The opportunities for Najee Harris are not what they once were, and Kenny Pickett might be forced to air it out a bit. Also, Jaylen Waddle should benefit from the return of Tua Tagovailoa.
Here are our Steelers vs. Dolphins Week 7 prop picks for October 23.
Odds as of 6:50 p.m. on 10/21/2022.
Steelers vs. Dolphins Week 7 prop picks
Best Bet : Harris under 61.5 rushing/receiving yards (-112)
Quantity matters just as much as quality for yardage props, and that’s why we’re fading Harris against Miami.
Whether you want to blame the Steelers’ offensive line, Harris’ preseason foot injury or the team’s stated intent to lighten his workload, the Pro Bowl tailback hasn’t been nearly as productive in Year 2.
|Season||Snap share||Yards/carry||Total yards/game|
|2022 (through Week 6)||65.7%||3.2||55.8|
Last year, a 61.5-yard line would’ve been laughable for Harris. But this year, it’s a mark he’s failed to clear in four of six games.
The rushing efficiency has been brutal and may not improve against a Dolphins defence that allows 4.2 yards per carry (10th in the NFL). But it’s Harris’ lack of work in the receiving game that really has us worried.
In 2021, playing with a worn-down version of Ben Roethlisberger, Harris was in check-down heaven. He saw 94 targets (5.5/game), which was tied for the most among running backs. This year, that number has plummeted to 3.0 per game — a 51-target pace.
Unless the Steelers beef up his workload again, we have to adjust our expectations for Harris.
Key stat: Harris has fallen under this rushing/receiving line in four of six games so far.
Waddle anytime TD (+120): Waddle leads all Dolphins receivers in targets inside the 10-yard line, catching two of three for two scores. All four of Waddle’s red zone targets have come with Tagovailoa at quarterback, so it’ll be nice to see the ex-Alabama players reunite on Sunday.
Waddle has the ability to bust a big play, just like Tyreek Hill, but with Waddle we also get enhanced red zone opportunities — and a better price.
Pickett over 20.5 completions (-136): We expect the return of Tagovailoa to breathe life into the Dolphins’ offence, thus forcing the Steelers to air it out a bit as they try to keep pace.
Pickett didn’t even attempt 21 passes last week, but the week prior he completed 34 of his 52 throws against the Bills in a negative game script. As long as the pass volume is sufficient, we expect the completions will follow for a guy who has played things very safe so far.
Among QBs who’ve appeared in at least three games, Pickett ranks 29th in air yards per attempt (3.8).
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