The basement dwellers of the CFL’s East Division meet on Friday night in Hamilton.
The pregame narrative: The Redblacks are still technically alive for a playoff spot, but they don’t control their own destiny. The Tiger-Cats have won three of four games and are inching toward a spot in the Eastern semifinal.
Check out our Redblacks vs. Tiger-Cats picks for October 21.
Odds as of 3:43 p.m. on 10/20/2022.
Redblacks vs. Tiger-Cats picks
Best bet: Redblacks +6.5 (-114)
The Redblacks are down, and pretty soon they’ll be out. But this is a line we’re not confident the Ti-Cats can cover.
Hamilton has only been favoured by 6.5 points or more on two occasions this season and both resulted in ATS losses:
- Week 3: 29-25 (L) vs. Edmonton
- Week 4: 25-23 (W) vs. Ottawa
Both of those games were months ago, but that speaks to the lack of confidence instilled in Hamilton to cover sizeable spreads. The Ti-Cats have won three of their last four games, but the past two have come by seven total points.
For as rough as Ottawa (4-12) has looked all season, its best football has come away from home. The Redblacks are 6-2 ATS on the road, covering all three spreads of 6.5 points or more. That includes a straight-up win as 6.5-point underdogs in Montreal on Thanksgiving.
Key stat: The Redblacks covered as 8-point underdogs when these teams met in Week 4, and they’ve covered in six of eight road games this season.
Under 49.5 points (-110): These teams combined for 48 points back in July, and they possess two of the worst offences in the CFL. Hamilton is sixth in scoring (23.0 points/game), while Ottawa ranks eighth 21.1 points/game).
The defences have been poor, too, but the Ti-Cats’ unit gets a lift as Redblacks leading receiver Jaelon Acklin (head/shoulder) was ruled out.
Hamilton has scored fewer than 20 points in two of its past three home games.
Ti-Cats ML + under 49.5 points (+163): Although we expect Ottawa to keep this game within a touchdown, Hamilton should still come out on top. The Redblacks are 1-4 in their past five games and their minus-85 point differential ranks last in the East.
Montreal has won five of its past six home games — a stretch that began with a win over Ottawa back in mid-July.
Backing Hamilton at home with the under is a reasonable way to manufacture a plus-money wager for this game.
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