Partner Content | Maple Leafs betting preview: Futures odds, top player picks and bets to fade

The cool autumn wind blistering through the streets of Toronto can only mean one thing: The Maple Leafs are back.

The latest: Toronto enters the 2022-23 season still looking to exorcise its playoff demons. Despite another first-round exit last year, expectations remain high for the team, which has the second-shortest odds to win the Stanley Cup.

Find all of the club’s odds and key storylines for Toronto’s upcoming season in our Maple Leafs betting preview.

Maple Leafs betting preview: Team odds

Market Odds
To win the Stanley Cup +1,000
To win the Presidents’ Trophy +600
To win the Eastern Conference +425
To win the Atlantic Division +200
Total Points – Regular season Over 107.5 (-112) or Under 107.5 (-112)
To reach playoffs Yes (-1,250) or No (+700)

Odds as of 9:58 a.m. on 10/03/2022.

Maple Leafs betting preview: The offseason

Below are the key additions and subtractions the Maple Leafs made this past offseason, courtesy of PuckPedia.

Key additions

  • Matt Murray via trade from Ottawa Senators
  • Calle Jarnkrok (four-year, $8.4-million contract)
  • Ilya Samsonov (one-year, $1.8-million contract)
  • Nicolas Aube-Kubel (one-year, $1-million contract)

Key departures

  • Jack Campbell (five-year, $25-million contract with Edmonton Oilers)
  • Ilya Mikheyev (four-year, $19-million contract with Vancouver Canucks)
  • Ilya Lyubushkin (two-year, $5.5-million contract with Buffalo Sabres)
  • Colin Blackwell (one-year, $2.4-million contract with Chicago Blackhawks)
  • Ondrej Kase (one-year, $1.5-million contract with Carolina Hurricanes)
  • Petr Mrazek via trade to Blackhawks
  • Jason Spezza (retired)

Best Maple Leafs futures bet

Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup (+1,000)

There’s always a Toronto tax to pay when it comes to betting on the Maple Leafs.

Toronto’s fan base is one of the most passionate in hockey and they aren’t afraid to bet on their team, which lessens some value across all markets. But the Maple Leafs’ expectations should be Stanley Cup or bust and that’s where bettors should put their money.

This roster is clearly built to win now and features no shortage of talent. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are one of the most dynamic forward tandems in the league, while John Tavares and William Nylander are talented options further down the lineup.

The questions, of course, always seem to surround defence and goaltending. The issue on the backend is everybody seems to be playing a spot up from where they should be. Is Morgan Rielly a legitimate No. 1 on a championship roster?

He can be, but it would be advantageous if his supporting cast was a little stronger.

The crease is a massive unknown with a pair of reclamation projects in Murray and Samsonov.

The Colorado Avalanche proved last year that you don’t need a Vezina-quality goaltender to win a Cup, so the Maple Leafs are hoping one of the two can turn into a serviceable option.

The reason why we prefer a bet on the Maple Leafs to win the Cup over anything else is the return. Because the Toronto tax essentially applies to all markets, we recommend betting on the one that provides the best payout.

Bet to fade

Over 107.5 points (-112)

The Maple Leafs finished last season with an impressive 115 points, ranking second in the Atlantic Division. The total marked the most points in franchise history and the first time the club surpassed 105 points in a season.

The division was very top-heavy a season ago, however, which allowed teams like Toronto, the Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins to beat up on the rest of the Atlantic. Last year’s bottom-feeders are ascending, though, which could mean fewer points for Toronto.

In the NHL, teams play 26 games against their divisional rivals and that will be a tougher lineup of opponents for Toronto this year.

Here’s how that will play out:

  • Boston x 4
  • Buffalo x 3
  • Detroit Red Wings x 4
  • Florida x 4
  • Montreal Canadiens x 4
  • Ottawa x 4
  • Tampa Bay x 3

Ottawa and Detroit were pushovers last year but bolstered their rosters this offseason. Buffalo, meanwhile, is hoping to be better as some of its youth start to reach the NHL.

With juice to pay on a fairly high total, bettors should look elsewhere when wagering on the Maple Leafs.

Maple Leafs player odds

Market Odds
Matthews to win the “Rocket” +250
Matthews to win the Hart Trophy +450
Matthews to win the Art Ross Trophy +800
Matthews goal total (59.5) Over (+102) or Under (-125)
Matthews point total (103.5) Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Marner to win the Art Ross Trophy +2,000
Marner to win the Hart Trophy +5,000
Marner goal total (29.5) Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Marner point total (93.5) Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Rielly to win the Norris Trophy +5,000
Rielly point total (59.5) Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Nylander to win the Art Ross Trophy +7,500
Nylander goal total (32.5) Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Nylander point total (75.5) Over (-112) or Under (-112)

Odds as of 9:58 a.m. on 10/03/2022.

Best player futures bet

Matthews to win the “Rocket” (+250)

Matthews is the NHL’s premier goalscorer at the moment and it isn’t particularly close.

The talented forward led the NHL in goals last season with 60 despite playing in 73 games, finishing five goals ahead of Leon Draisaitl (who played in seven more contests).

Matthews also ranked first in the league in even-strength goals (44), finishing eight ahead of Kyle Conner (36).

Auston Matthews is the NHL's top goalscorer. Auston Matthews is the NHL's top goalscorer. Photo by Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press.

Some more advanced numbers do an even better job at illustrating Matthews’ dominance compared to his contemporaries.

Matthews ranked first or tied for first across the board in 5v5 individual expected goals (24.65), Corsi (422), scoring chances (307) and high-danger chances (117), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Draisaitl (+600) is listed second on the odds leaderboard, but the numbers suggest that the gap between him and Matthews is even larger than that.

Player 5v5 goals (since 2019-20) 5v5 goals (2021-22) 5v5 iSCF (since 2019-20) 5v5 iSCF (2021-22) 5v5 iHDCF (since 2019-20) 5v5 iHDCF (2021-22)
Draisaitl 35 (8th) 26 (T-4th) 389 (T-37th)[email protected] 160 (T-47th) 158 (T-59th) 72 (T-47th)
Matthews 58 (1st) 38 (1st) 735 (1st) 307 (1st) 303 (1st) 117 (1st)

Matthews grades out better than Draisaitl, and everyone else in the league for that matter, in a number of key categories both last year and over the last three seasons. Take the plus-money odds on the Maple Leafs superstar to pace the NHL in goals.

Bet to fade

Matthews to win the Art Ross Trophy (+800)

There are a couple of things working against Matthews when it comes to winning the Art Ross.

The first is that it’s very uncommon for a pure goalscorer like Matthews to win the honour. A great example is Alex Ovechkin, a 50-goal threat every season who has managed just one Art Ross (2008) in his 17-year career.

Secondly, it’s unlikely that someone not named Connor McDavid will pace the league in points. The Oilers superstar has done so four times in his seven-year career, and in each of his last two seasons. McDavid’s totalled 73 more points than Matthews over the past three campaigns.

Matthews tied for sixth in points with 106 last year, but that seems like his ceiling. There’s not much value here.

Maple Leafs betting long shot

Marner to win the Art Ross Trophy (+2,000)

Marner added a wrinkle to his game in 2021-22 that makes us believe he may take another step forward this upcoming season.

The shifty forward started putting more pucks on net. Hockey fans already knew the winger was an elite playmaker, but his transition from pass-first to a more balanced attack helped him set career highs in goals per 60 (1.4) and shots per 60 (8.9), while also tying his best assists per 60 mark (2.5).

Playing alongside an elite goalscorer like Matthews doesn’t hurt, either. Marner proved last year that he can still be an effective set-up man for the league’s best sniper while also creating his own offence.

The 25-year-old had a career-best offensive point share with a mark of 8.5, topping his previous high (7.6) by nearly a full point. One of the players Marner’s career point share most similarly grades out to through six seasons is Patrick Kane, according to Hockey Reference, and the Blackhawks star went on to win the Art Ross in his ninth season.

That’s an encouraging comparison and at these odds, Marner’s the best value on the Maple Leafs to pace the league in points.


Steven Psihogios writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @StevenPsihogios

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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