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Two new polls predict pro-independence majority at Holyrood election

TWO new polls have predicted a pro-independence majority at the Holyrood election.

A Savanta ComRes survey for The Scotsman predicts that the SNP will return 63 MSPs in total – two short of a majority – the same number as in 2016.

However there would still be a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, with the Scottish Greens forecast to return eight MSPs, two more than 2016, and the party predicted to secure 7% of the list vote in 2021.

READ MORE: SNP set for clash with judiciary over pledge to introduce register of interests

Only 1% of voters said they plan to vote for Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, which would leave it without a single MSP elected.

The poll projects that the SNP will return a constituency vote of 46% and a list vote of 38% in the May 6 election.

It predicts that the Scottish Conservatives will achieve 25% of the constituency vote and 23% of the regional list, which would see it return 32 MSPs – one more than in 2016.

Scottish Labour are forecast to return 20% on the constituency and 17% on the list vote and is predicted to return 21 MSPs, three fewer than in 2016.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are predicted to return five MSPs, the same number as in 2016, with 6% of the constituency and 5% of the list vote.

A poll for The Times, carried out by YouGov, found the SNP remain on course for a majority at the election.

But it found the party’s support is slipping and backing for independence, at 47%, has fallen by two percentage points compared with the previous poll early last month.

The Scotsman’s poll of 1001 Scottish adults also found that support for Scottish independence is split, though support for No has increased since a survey at the start of April.

The latest poll found that 48% would vote No in an independence referendum, while 45% would vote Yes, with the remainder undecided.

When “don’t knows” are excluded, 52% support No and 48% said they would vote Yes.

A survey at the start of April found that if an independence referendum was to be held tomorrow, 45% would vote Yes and the same proportion No, with the remainder undecided.

The latest poll was carried out between April 16 and 20.

The Times poll found the Scottish Conservatives would comfortably retain second, despite Douglas Ross’s approval rating falling by 12 points to minus 33. Only 18% of people said he is performing well, down two points. In total, 51% say he is doing a bad job, an increase of ten points.

Nicola Sturgeon remains Scotland’s most popular political leader with a rating of plus 25, falling two points since last month.



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