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U.S. natgas futures drop 5% on rising output, milder forecasts

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U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Friday as output slowly rises and on

forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

That decline comes despite a jump in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export

plants to a near seven-week high following maintenance outages at some Gulf Coast plants.

Although the weather is expected to turn milder next week, it’s still hot in many parts of the country

now.

In the spot market, next-day power at the PJM West hub and gas at the Dominion South hub

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in Pennsylvania jumped to their highest since the February freeze in 2021 as homes and

businesses crank up air conditioners to escape the heat.

High air conditioning use also boosted peak power demand in Texas to a record for the month of May on

Thursday. The state’s grid operator forecast demand would likely break that record peak on Friday.

U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery fell 37.9 cents, or 4.6%, to $7.929 per million

British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT).

Despite Friday’s decline, the contract was still up about 4% for the week after falling about 5% last

week.

Gas was trading around $28 per mmBtu in Europe and $22 in Asia. The U.S. contract

rose to a 13-year high near $9 on May 6.

U.S. futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world’s top producer, with all

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the gas it needs for domestic use while capacity constraints inhibit exports of more LNG.

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.9 billion cubic

feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in

November 2021.

Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 89.7 bcfd this week and

next before sliding to 88.7 bcfd in two weeks.

The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.3 bcfd so far in May from 12.2 bcfd

in April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2

bcfd of gas into LNG.

On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a near seven-week high of 13.3 bcfd on Friday.

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Since the United States will not be able to produce much more LNG soon, it has worked with allies to

divert exports from elsewhere to Europe to help European Union (EU) countries and others break their

dependence on Russian gas after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

Russian gas exports to Europe rose to around 8.1 bcfd on Thursday from about 7.8 bcfd on Wednesday on the

three mainlines into Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the

Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That compares with an average of 11.9 bcfd in May 2021.

Gas stockpiles in Northwest Europe – Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands – were

about 14% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, down from 39% below the five-year

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norm in mid-March, according to Refinitiv. Storage was currently about 37% of full capacity.

That is healthier than U.S. inventories, which were around 15% below their five-year norm, because high

European gas prices have kept LNG imports strong while Russia keeps supplying fuel via pipeline.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

May 20 May 13 May 20 average

(Forecast) (Actual) May 20

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +95 +89 +109 +97

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,827 1,732 2,199 2,139

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -14.6% -15.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2021 (2017-2021)

Henry Hub 7.94 8.31 2.96 3.73 2.89

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Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 28.05 27.88 8.88 16.04 7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 21.79 21.17 9.65 18.00 8.95

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 36 31 43 49 44

U.S. GFS CDDs 128 132 86 96 102

U.S. GFS TDDs 164 163 129 145 146

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year

Last Year Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 95.2 95.1 95.1 92.0 83.9

U.S. Imports from Canada 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.2 7.6

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total U.S. Supply 103.2 102.7 103.0 99.2 92.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1

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U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.8

U.S. LNG Exports 12.2 12.2 13.1 10.5 5.1

U.S. Commercial 6.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.6

U.S. Residential 7.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 6.7

U.S. Power Plant 28.2 31.4 30.3 25.4 26.0

U.S. Industrial 21.0 20.7 20.9 21.4 20.9

U.S. Plant Fuel 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6

U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 69.0 68.5 67.7 63.0 65.7

Total U.S. Demand 90.3 89.6 89.7 81.7 77.7

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

May 20 May 13 May 6 Apr 29 Apr 22

Wind 11 15 13 16 16

Solar 4 4 4 4 4

Hydro 7 7 7 7 7

Other 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 38 34 36 33 33

Coal 20 18 19 19 19

Nuclear 19 19 20 19 19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 8.21 8.53

Transco Z6 New York 7.82 7.75

PG&E Citygate 9.78 9.98

Dominion South 7.62 7.55

Chicago Citygate 7.93 8.08

Algonquin Citygate 7.94 8.04

SoCal Citygate 8.19 8.68

Waha Hub 7.33 8.01

AECO 4.58 6.41

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day

New England 70.00 78.75

PJM West 153.50 131.75

Ercot North 80.00 77.75

Mid C 18.25 19.19

Palo Verde 37.50 41.00

SP-15 51.25 53.00

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

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